Do NFL Superteams Actually Win?
· news
The Superteam Fallacy: Why NFL Favored Teams Often Crash and Burn
The 2026 Rams have been anointed as the team to beat this season, with their aggressive offseason moves making them prohibitive favorites to win Super Bowl LXI. However, history suggests that superteams often fail to live up to their lofty expectations.
In 2025, a staggering 68 ESPN personalities picked the Chiefs and Packers as their champions before the season began, only for both teams to combine for zero playoff wins. Similarly, in 1998, a dominant Patriots team was expected to run roughshod over the league but ultimately fell short against the Giants in Super Bowl XXXVI.
The phenomenon of superteams failing to deliver can be attributed to their reliance on superstar players and offseason hype. The Patriots’ dynasty of the early 2000s, for instance, was built around Tom Brady’s consistent excellence but also relied heavily on key free agent additions like Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Similarly, the 2026 Rams are counting on Matthew Stafford to lead them to victory, as well as the defensive prowess of Myles Garrett.
When these players fail to perform or when teams face unexpected challenges during the season, superteams often crumble under pressure. In the case of the 2017 Patriots, it was a combination of factors, including a struggling defense and close calls that ultimately led to their downfall. The Eagles, who were heavy underdogs at the time, capitalized on the Patriots’ mistakes and pulled off one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history.
The NFL’s obsession with superteams is rooted in a desire for drama and excitement, as well as the need to create compelling narratives around individual players. Fans love to root for teams that are expected to dominate, and analysts often fall prey to the same temptation. However, this approach overlooks the inherent unpredictability of the NFL season.
Injuries can decimate a team’s chances, while unexpected challenges from rival teams can derail even the best-laid plans. Moreover, the league’s parity is greater than many fans and analysts realize, with multiple teams capable of making deep playoff runs each year.
The 2026 Rams seem poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, but history suggests that even the most promising teams can fall short of expectations. With their impressive offseason moves and dominant preseason performances, they may have all the makings of a superteam. However, it’s essential to keep these lessons in mind as we look ahead to the upcoming season.
Rather than assuming that the superteam will automatically dominate, fans should be prepared for the unexpected twists and turns that inevitably arise during an NFL season. By doing so, we’ll be better equipped to appreciate the drama and excitement of the game, even when our favorite team falls short.
The 2026 Rams may have all the makings of a superteam, but history suggests that they should be treated with caution. With the unpredictability of the NFL season always lurking, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen come February 14th.
Reader Views
- CMColumnist M. Reid · opinion columnist
The allure of the superteam is undeniable, but let's not forget the importance of team cohesion and chemistry in sustaining success over a long season. The article highlights how individual superstars can be unreliable, but what about when those stars are replaced by young players who suddenly need to adapt to new roles? Injuries or contract disputes can decimate even the most promising superteams, making it crucial for teams to have depth and organizational stability behind their top talent. The Rams' success this season will hinge on more than just Matthew Stafford's arm.
- EKEditor K. Wells · editor
The superteam phenomenon is often driven by an oversimplification of what truly matters in football. While flashy offseason moves and superstar talent are certainly enticing, they're not a guarantee of success. In fact, studies have shown that teams with multiple high-profile players tend to overpay for underperforming contracts, creating salary cap headaches down the line. The real challenge lies in building depth and cohesion within an organization – something that's often sacrificed at the altar of short-term expectations and fan excitement.
- ADAnalyst D. Park · policy analyst
While the article does a great job highlighting the pitfalls of superteams, I'd argue that their downfall is often as much about team chemistry and organizational depth as it is about individual player performance. For instance, the Patriots' dynasty was built on not just Tom Brady's excellence but also Bill Belichick's meticulous roster management and ability to adapt to injuries. Similarly, a well-structured front office can mitigate the impact of superstar players' off-years or trades, making all the difference between a superteam's success or failure.